investment through PN route and its effect

In the year 2002-03 market was sluggish .The prices of many companies were reaching new lows and facing doom. Let us take an example of a mid-cap share Fedder Lloyd. It's price in this period was about Rs 4 but in 2006-07 it reached the zenith of Rs 210.What was the cause behind the sudden spurt? If we see the development through a common man's eye then we can hardly find any difference.If we go back to factual data's then there was about 10-15% growth in village and semi-urban areas while in the stock market it was 50 times rise. What is the reason behind this rise? One of the main reason is the increase in inflow of money by FII in secondary market. This vast amount of money came via PN route .But this money caused many problems like the appreciation of rupee and mingling of foreign reserves.Due to this RBI took many steps and expressed it's concern over PN route inflow. At last the finance ministry decided to curb the inflow of money through PN route. in October '07 SEBI decided to stop further inflow of money through PN route and also advised FII and hedge funds to withdraw their PN route investments within 15 months.
After this announcement market reacted vigorously and their was blood bath but after every blood bath rescue measures starts by market regulators and finance ministry.This time also their was a same repetition.Indian people have short memory.They forget everything after month or two.Again the analysts show the virtual reality of Indian growth story with their lucrative statistical data's. History repeats itself . Again there was rise in stock price .on 10 Jan 2008 nifty was gyrating at 6357 and our beloved sensex 21206.At this heyday [zenith] big operators get chance to exit. This time also happened the same thing.
We all know the fact that within 15 months all investments through PN route is going to be liquidated. Then why are we becoming so much bullish in the market. we should invest after contemplating seriously. I f we see it with a pessimistic view then nifty has the potential to go down to 2600-3000. But don't get worried . This will not happen overnight. after many troughs and crests ,this will happen.we should also keep pace with shrewd FII.then we indians can make money in capital market. we should never buy at bouncy and never sell at panic.The investment coming through PN route will show it's consequences till Dec'08. At every apex hedge fund are waiting to liquidate their positions . So we Indians should remain cautious.

Make money in crude

The price of crude is at all time high.International oil cartel is giving a number of reasons behind the rise in price.But this is a part of cyclic phenomena.Due to this exorbitant price there will be a decrease in demand, at higher level.So, bull liquidation can happen anytime.that is why one can short crude for medium term.
At present the price of crude is $115,but it has the potential to come down to $65 in a span of 3 to 4 months. If we see the movement technically ,then in historic price high sky is the limit, but here again the fundamentals come to rescue.
while doing analysis i have kept the following factors in mind:-
1) International oil supply
2)demand in world
3)long positions in it by bull cartels.
4)last 4 month price variation.
5)it's demand in future which may slow
So, from the above discussion i have deduced that if any stock market player goes short in crude with a horizon of 3 to 4 months ,then he would get a handsome profit.
Disclaimer-this article has been made to give you only information not as professional assistance.so please take it as information and take your own decisions

Nifty april series

Nifty is heading towards 5077 and 5105.at present many Indian analysts are suggesting to avoid long positions since the commencement of the month or to be more accurate ,from 4550-4600 levels.But their views and recommendations will change and become bullish when market will touch 5105. The concern arises at this point.from this point only it can be analysed where the next movement will be bullish or bearish.But my advise for short term is to remain cautious around 5100 level.
Day traders should avoid long or short positions.My experience says that day trader has not be able to make money in present,past or future.yes, but still they have vital role in the market.Since they are small players they have a brief effect on market and mainly contribute in raising liquidity for big players. So, due to the above facts never become a day trader.You should at least have a horizon of one week to one month, if you have market experience of 12 years otherwise you will be the ultimate loser.you may ask why 12 years?The answer is that within this long span you have seen large volatility in the market.After such experience,you have power to analyse various types of news and their impacts.you can also know the tricks of big payers like bull phase and bear phase. wait for the next article. disclaimer-this article has been made to give you only information not as professional assistance.so please take it as information and take your own decisions