History repeats itself

(This article was originally written in november 2008).
Time has three dimension,present,past and future. Each has its own existence but are co-related by the unique bonding force.Each of them influences and decide the fate of following.
Time has no physical existence like length, mass and width.It has its own fourth dimension. We cannot enter this dimension but are mere utilise and spectators of the product of this dimension. Just like electricity produced in the power station, if not utilised is lost or transformed. Time come and becomes past.It is the present which decides the shape of past. Present is momentary.It is instant and jiffy. Past and future are infinite in opposite direction. Present which is short lived can't be rely upon.It has single destiny utilise it in the best possible way. So you analyse the past and ready to face present, because future is coming very quickly before you,in the form of present. You should analyse the fact to get ready for the future which is very quickly travelling to become present otherwise it will change.
Now, we come to our main discussion. How we can plan and manage our tasks and which facts should be analyse to decide our action. Today we have the vast storage of our past. If we analyse these past facts and figures then we will know what the plan should be. By studying past, we will be able to better operate our present to give rise to our desired future.
These days we are observing that great analysts especially of stock market and economics are predicting the future by seeing the present situation.
I had forecasted the present American melt down in 2007 in ,my close friend circle. I am not writing these to proclaim myself a great analyst, but to give warning to gullible investors.
My request to you is that please do not take decisions seeing the present. You analyse the past and imagine the future in those slide of facts, then your prediction will be true. Present is momentary. Please do not believe the fake illusions or fears it shows. The illusionary present would turn into past and it is you who will shape the future of present.
The second most important thing is to not to forget the fundamentals. the fundamental is truth and every other thing is false.
Lord Buddha became a monk and after long meditation he gave us the following message-" do not tighten the strings of veena to the extent that it breaks or loosen it too much so that no sound comes. Adjust it to get the sweet pleasant music."
In the same way don’t inflate the Sensex and take it to 22000 or loosen it to drop it to 6000. just adjust it. My dear brothers and sisters, this means that acclaim a stock according to its real worth, if invested then enjoy its dividend, but buy it at a fundamentally suitable price.
After analysing the past and future, i have concluded that the situation is alarming. The bail out package and development of various financial policies will not have any magical impact upon the situation.
The truth is that relief rally will come, but in long -term the bearish phase will continue. This phase will last a minimum of 3 years and a maximum of 12 years.
But if a technological revolution comes, then the fate of economy can change. If today's theoretical imagination of nano technology changes into practical reality then a revolution will start. The leader of this revolution will be some other person. At that time the important sectors of today will grow obsolete and this will cause a radical change. Here i will like to write that if you imagine future taking past into consideration then your analysis will most probably be correct.
Recently when crude touched $147 then the great pundits of the world fore casted$200 as the price of crude. This analysis was influenced on the basis of present. These diabolic pundits forgot the past and future in the analysis of present.
During the boom in stock market nifty touched 6300. at this time these self acclaimed perfect pundits created a hoax of emerging market. Dow Jones was bullish at 14500. at that heyday why had they forgotten the crash of 1930.
In 1986-87, Japanese indices Nikkei was at 33000 , in 10 to 15 months it lost 3000 points and then continued to stumble till it reached a low of 7000.Are these bloody tales of history not visible to the great pundits? Why at that time they fore casted growth, prosperity and misguided the people?
I am a very small analyst but I fore casted the current scenario . At that time I was a laugh piece for the people.I warned the people in April2008 through my article on PN route on this blog but nobody paid attention.
I had fore casted on my blog that nifty will reach 2600 by December but reached 2200 in October 2008.
In the current relief rally nifty will go up to 3400-3700-4000. But the long term bearish trend will continue in 2009-10, ,nifty may further decelerate to reach a bottom of a)1800 b)1250. After touching the bottom the market will consolidate. In 2010,onward market will consolidate and get momentum for 2010-2013. sensex has potential to touch 27000-33000.
After every disaster relief work takes place the population returns. Houses, bridges and colonies are constructed. People slowly forget the disaster. After every winter there comes a spring. Again the sweet fragrance of blossoming flowers fill the air. Again the birds twitter on branches and again happiness returns.
खिलते हैं गुल यहाँ
खिल के बिखर जाने को
खिलते हैं गुल यहाँ
सेंसेक्स बढ़ते हैं यहाँ
बढ़ के गिर जाने को
बढ़ते हैं सेंसेक्स यहाँ -
कल कोई रहे न रहे
स्टॉक मार्केट रहेगा
इंडियन इन्वेस्टर करे न करे
FII इन्वेस्ट करेगा ।